Key takeaways

  • Climate change and environmental pressures worsen existing vulnerabilities and fragility in conflict settings, creating conditions in which non-state armed groups can emerge and grow.
  • Non-state armed groups exploit climate-related hardships to recruit, operate and pursue their goals, with uneven local impacts that remain largely unaddressed.
  • When responses to non-state armed groups and climate challenges lack conflict and climate sensitivity, they can worsen vulnerabilities; integrated, evidence-based approaches are needed.

A decade after adelphi’s 2016 report first mapped the links between climate change and non-state armed groups, this discussion paper, co-developed by adelphi and UNIDIR, revisits that analysis in light of a substantially expanded evidence base.

Drawing on recent research, the paper distils how climate change can drive the risks of violent conflict and interact with specific conflict dynamics and armed group decisions. It also documents how poorly designed, siloed interventions can inadvertently deepen grievances and vulnerabilities, and sets out priorities for cross-sectoral, climate- and conflict-sensitive, evidence-based policy responses.

The paper concludes with a proposed joint action agenda to strengthen the evidence base, build more integrated and inclusive responses, and establish the institutional conditions necessary for effective integrated action.