This report examines the risks associated with a nuclear arms race. Drawing lessons from the Cold War, it warns that while past arms races have not lead to nuclear war, they carried with them a range of other risks. These include the dangers of a nuclear escalation and inadvertent use, financial and humanitarian costs, disruption of deterrence and pressures on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons.
The report also surveys the current security environment, highlighting deteriorating arms control frameworks, strained dialogue among nuclear powers, and expanding arsenals as critical concerns. It emphasizes that arms races sustain or intensify hostility among protagonists, compounding the inherent risks of nuclear weapons through deliberate competitive build-ups that are likely to exacerbate existing tensions. The conclusion explores what approaches can be used to manage these risks.
Citation: Tim Caughley, Racing Towards Risk: The Hidden Costs of Nuclear Arms Build-Up (Geneva: UNIDIR, 2025), https://doi.org/10.37559/WMD/25/NRR/01.