This report explores the interplay between climate shocks, human-led degradation and armed group activity in the Colombian Amazon. Focusing on the involvement of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia-People’s Army (FARC-EP) dissidents in deforestation activities during the 2023-2024 El Niño cycle, it examines how these groups adapted their behavior in response to climatic shifts, using El Niño as a proxy for climate change impacts.
The study draws on two rounds of focus groups with community leaders, civil authorities, Indigenous communities, public forces and youth in San José de Guaviare. The first round was conducted in November 2023, before the El Niño effects were widely felt, and the second round was conducted in September 2024, after its most severe impacts.
The findings indicate a marked increase in deforestation during the El Niño cycle, driven by dry conditions that were favourable to these activities, which had significant social, cultural, economic and environmental consequences for communities in the region. FARC dissident groups have taken advantage of these dry conditions, establishing a robust business model centred on regulating deforestation and profiting from related economic activities in the region, such as cattle ranching, as well as milk and wood production. Moreover, dissidents have also used deforestation as a tool to pressure the government to comply with their demands during the Total Peace negotiations.
Institutional responses to prevent and tackle deforestation, however, remain insufficient, primarily due to limited State control over the affected territories. This underscores the urgent need for increased support for communities in the Amazon grappling with the dual challenges of climate change and insecurity.
In collaboration with the Foundation for Conservation and Sustainable Development, the report offers several recommendations, including strengthening security measures to ensure the continuity and sustainability of environmental authorities’ work, raising awareness of deforestation issues, enhancing institutional capacity to address the problem, and generating more evidence and data on the matter.
Citation: Juanita Vélez, Ángela Aguirre, Sofia Rivas, Dr. Siobhan O’Neil, "Armed Group Responses to Climate Shocks: A Study of FARC-EP Dissident Activities in the Colombian Amazon During an El Niño Year,” Findings Report 43, UNIDIR, Geneva, 2025, https://doi.org/10.37559/MEAC/25/03