Threats to peace that relate to arms control and disarmament have a direct impact on the future of international peace and security, as well as to the achievement of all Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The use of foresight to examine international security, and specifically issues of arms control and disarmament, can help our collective preparedness to deal with upcoming unpredictability and to increase our resilience in the face of it. It can also make relevant stakeholders consider what actions are available today and could be taken, to mitigate or avoid unwanted futures, and pave the path for preferred futures. 

This report presents the findings of a foresight study which utilized future scenarios as a method to explore potential future challenges, focusing on threats to international security linked to arms control and disarmament. The report also identifies options for actions available today to mitigate the identified challenges, based on the threats emerging from the future scenarios.

These pathways for action are not recommendations, but rather aim to provide a range of ideas that could be further discussed and developed with a broad range of stakeholders, both within and outside of the United Nations, in the context of the Summit of the Future and beyond.

A companion report, detailing the foresight approach used, is available here.

Donors: The Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, and Microsoft

Citation: Sarah Grand-Clément (2023). “International Security in 2045: Exploring Futures for Peace, Security and Disarmament”. UNIDIR: Geneva.