Flows of conventional arms and ammunition into unstable regions can be one possible signal of future outbreak, escalations or relapses of armed conflict. However, the potential of arms and ammunition flows data for early warning remains underexplored. How can such data contribute to early warning? What data is currently collected? What data would be suitable and most needed for early warning? How can we concretely overcome gaps and challenges in using arms and ammunition flows data for early warning?
In 2024, UNIDIR, Conflict Armament Research (CAR), the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIOR) and the Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) launched an innovative initiative to identify practical and feasible options to better harness data on arms and ammunition flows for early warning efforts, building the missing bridges between relevant expert communities.
This seeks to practically benefit the work of arms flows monitoring and early warning practitioners. In June, two focus groups comprising selected experts convened to initiate common understandings and dialogue on the potential, challenges and gaps associated with using arms and ammunition flow data in early warning. The discussions also examined the characteristics that make such data suitable for various early warning efforts.
Building upon and deepening these initial reflections, UNIDIR, CAR, PRIO and VIEWS will convene a conference as a landmark step of this initiative to pave the way for actionable solutions and avenues for cooperation in this critical, yet overlooked, domain. The conference, titled “Building bridges and incubating ideas for stronger conflict prevention: Harnessing arms and ammunition flows data for early warning”, aims to:
- Deepen dialogue and shared understanding about the relevance, potential and limitations of arms and ammunition flows data for early warning.
- Explore different localized/regional and global-level arms and ammunition flows data, different quantitative and qualitative early warning efforts and examples of arms and ammunition flows data in such efforts.
- Co-create practical, impact-oriented solutions and build partnerships to overcome current gaps and challenges for harnessing arms and ammunition flows data in early warning.
- Build bridges between arms and ammunition flows monitoring and early warning experts across science, policymaking and implementation, with a view to alimenting an interdisciplinary expert community.
The first two days of the conference will focus on exchanges among technical experts in arms flow monitoring and early warning. The final day will bring together technical and political stakeholders, facilitating dialogue between experts and representatives from Permanent Missions in Geneva. This aims to stimulate concrete pathways to strengthen conflict prevention and the role of arms control in it, as outlined in key policy processes such as the Pact for the Future and the New Agenda for Peace.
The results from this conference and the broader initiative are expected to contribute towards the strengthening of national, regional and global efforts to improve conflict prevention and early warning, harness data and technologies to that effect and enhance the protection of civilians.
When and where
Wednesday, 6 November-Friday, 8 November, Varembé Conference Centre, Geneva.
Participants
Participation is upon invitation only. The conference will bring together early warning and arms control experts from the UN, international organizations, regional organizations, civil society and academia. Invited representatives from Permanent Missions in Geneva will join the last day of the conference.
Further information
For any questions, please contact Matilde Vecchioni at matilde.vecchioni@un.org and Joshua Bata at joshua.bata@un.org.
Partners
