This report summarizes the discussions held during a retreat organized by UNIDIR to explore nuclear weapon States’ perceptions of nuclear risks and opportunities for nuclear risk reduction. The retreat convened senior non-governmental experts – including former officials – from China, France, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The retreat report defines the various forms of nuclear risks, highlights States' differing interpretations of precautionary measures, explores potential flashpoints that could lead to nuclear use and examines ways to mitigate these risks.
The report also covers the contrasting views on deterrence, perceptions and misperceptions, the role of norms, challenges in signaling and the risks of escalation. Participants worked to identify islands of convergence amongst them, as well as potential areas of collaboration with non-nuclear-weapon States to advance risk reduction dialogue and measures.
Citation: Andrey Baklitskiy and Sarah Ruth Opatowski, Nuclear Risks: Perceptions and Pathways, Geneva: UNIDIR, 2024. https://doi.org/10.37559/WMD/24/NRR/01.