Notes:
This mapping of main arms and ammunition flow data sources and of key conflict early-warning initiatives is a living working tool. It is primarily based on publicly accessible information. Items in brackets “[]” indicate uncertainty or limited public information and hence are ‘best estimates’ based on available information. Arms and ammunition flow data sources are limited to systematic data collection efforts (e.g. databases, regular reports).
Should you identify any inaccurate or incomplete information, or you wish to make any feedback, comments, and complements, please send these through cap-unidir@un.org. Requests for inclusion of additional sources or initiatives in the mapping are particularly encouraged.
Latest update: March 2025
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{1} Type of Organization. Options: (a) United Nations and other international bodies; (b) Regional organizations; (c) Non-government organizations.
{2} Intended Coverage. This describes the intended geographic coverage of the dataset. Options: (a) Global; (b) Targeted; (c) Regional. Targeted are datasets which cover different sub-national, national, sub-regional and regional datasets (with no defined sub-regions or regions). Regional are datasets which cover defined regions or sub-regions.
{3} Type of Release. Options: (a) Publicly released; (b) Subscription-based / partial release; (c) Publicly unavailable; (d) Inactive.
{4} Release Timing. Options: (a) Yearly; (b) No timing set; (c) Ad hoc. No timing includes datasets which release new information without defined intervals or frequency. Ad hoc includes datasets which release new information with defined set of intervals or frequency such as weekly or monthly.
{5} Primary Format for Sharing Information. Options: (a) Database; (b) Report; (c) Tool.
{6} Data Collection Methods. Options: (a) Official / state data; (b) Open-source scanning; (c) Fieldwork. This category refers to the primary method of collecting data or information.
{7} Contains Flows of Major Conventional Weapons. Options: (a) Yes; (b) No; (c) Partially. There are several definitions on the weapon types categorized as major conventional weapons and as small arms and light weapons (SALW), depending on international instruments, institutions, organizations, and States.
{8} Contains Flows of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW). Options: (a) Yes; (b) No; (c) Partially. There are several definitions on the weapon types categorized as major conventional weapons and as small arms and light weapons (SALW), depending on international instruments, institutions, organizations, and States.
{9} Contains Flows of Ammunition. Options: (a) Yes; (b) No; (c) Partially. Sources that contain information on missiles with a range beyond 25km are treated as “partial” (i.e., ATT and UNROCA) on the ammunition flows column. Instruments such as ATT and UNROCA request/require for reporting on missiles beyond 25km – i.e., conventional ammunition. However, most types of conventional ammunition are not required/requested for reporting, and hence, many states do not report these.
{10} Contains Flows of Parts, Components and Other Related Weapon Materials. Options: (a) Yes; (b) No; (c) Partially.
{11} Types of Flows Collected. Options: (a) Illicit flows; (b) Authorized flows
{12} Methodological Approach. This refers to the overarching methodology: a) Qualitative methods, b) Quantitative (computational) methods, or c) Mixed methods (combination of qualitative and quantitative).
{13} Forecasting/Monitoring. General type of conflict early-warning system offered, e.g., a) conflict monitoring/analysis, or b) conflict forecasting.
{14} Target Outcome (Dependent Variable). Main targeted conflict outcome that is monitored or forecasted by the initiative.
{15} Horizon Outlook. Time horizon into which the initiative aims to/does provide their analyses or forecasts.
{16} Update Cycle. Cycle in which new analyses or forecasts are released.
{17} Geographic Scope. Geographic area for which the initiative aims to/does provide their analyses or forecasts.
{18} Levels of Analysis. Regional, sub-regional, national, sub-national analysis, i.e., geographic detail of the information provided per given time period. For example, country/month.
{19} Themes of Indicators (input data). Thematic focus of indicators/sources of input data that early warning initiatives use to provide their analyses/forecasts.
{20} Input Data Period. The (longest) time period covered by historic data informing the analyses/forecasts, i.e., the ideal period new data sources should cover.
{21} Transparency. Refers to the transparency of the systems, that is, whether they are public or closed-source.
