Key takeaways

• Climate change and environmental pressures worsen existing vulnerabilities and fragility in conflict settings, creating conditions in which non-state armed groups can emerge and grow.
• Non-state armed groups exploit climate-related hardships to recruit, operate and pursue their goals, with uneven local impacts that remain largely unaddressed.
• When responses to non-state armed groups and climate challenges lack conflict and climate sensitivity, they can worsen vulnerabilities; integrated, evidence-based approaches are needed.

A decade after adelphi’s 2016 report first mapped the links between climate change and non-state armed groups, this discussion paper, co-developed by adelphi and UNIDIR, revisits that analysis in light of a substantially expanded evidence base.

Drawing on recent research, the paper distils how climate change can drive the risks of violent conflict and interact with specific conflict dynamics and armed group decisions. It also documents how poorly designed, siloed interventions can inadvertently deepen grievances and vulnerabilities, and sets out priorities for cross-sectoral, climate- and conflict-sensitive, evidence-based policy responses.

The paper concludes with a proposed joint action agenda to strengthen the evidence base, build more integrated and inclusive responses, and establish the institutional conditions necessary for effective integrated action.

The post Non-State Armed Groups Operating in the Climate–Environment–Conflict Nexus: Recent Research Findings and Policy Responses first appeared on UNIDIR.

The report assesses how former associates of Boko Haram and former affiliates of community security actors like the CJTF and Yan Gora are doing economically compared to their non- affiliated peers, to inform reintegration support in the region. The findings are based on three-part survey conducted in the North East of Nigeria between 2021-2023 and highlight the reintegration journeys of individuals who left Boko Haram prior to the “mass exits” following the death of leader Abubakar Shekau in May 2021. A comparative section incorporates more recent data from a panel survey conducted in 2024-2025, showing how earlier findings remain relevant for those who exited during or after the mass exits.

The post Rebuilding Lives: Understanding Economic Well-being After Exiting an Armed Group in the North East of Nigeria first appeared on UNIDIR.

The findings in this report are based on quantitative data collected in two rounds of a panel survey collected between January and March 2024 and January and February 2025 in three States affected by banditry violence: Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara. By questioning certain common narratives around the banditry conflict, livelihoods and tribal affiliation, this report aims to inform a more nuanced approach to the conflict and responses to violence.

The post Exposure, Not Identity? Understanding Victimization by Bandits in Nigeria’s North West first appeared on UNIDIR.

The insights were drawn from research conducted by UNIDIR’s Managing Exits from Armed Conflict with the Nasa Indigenous Community of Northern Cauca, Colombia, as well as on interviews with 18 experts on the topic. These research projects evidenced that despite growing evidence of the existence and prevalence of CRSV against men and boys, the issue remains under-investigated, and this group is largely overlooked in programming initiatives.

With proper contextualization, the recommendations may prove useful for international actors aiming to adopt more inclusive approaches and strengthen support for male survivors in their own settings.

The post Combating Conflict Related Sexual Violence Against Men and Boys: Challenges and Opportunities first appeared on UNIDIR.

Effectively addressing the needs of women and girls exiting armed groups through gender-sensitive programmes that reflect their lived realities is key to achieving sustainable peace for all affected by the conflict.

The post At the Margins: Gendered Barriers to Accessing Reintegration Programming in the Lake Chad Basin first appeared on UNIDIR.

The study draws on two rounds of focus groups with community leaders, civil authorities, Indigenous communities, public forces and youth in San José de Guaviare. The first round was conducted in November 2023, before the El Niño effects were widely felt, and the second round was conducted in September 2024, after its most severe impacts.

The findings indicate a marked increase in deforestation during the El Niño cycle, driven by dry conditions that were favourable to these activities, which had significant social, cultural, economic and environmental consequences for communities in the region. FARC dissident groups have taken advantage of these dry conditions, establishing a robust business model centred on regulating deforestation and profiting from related economic activities in the region, such as cattle ranching, as well as milk and wood production. Moreover, dissidents have also used deforestation as a tool to pressure the government to comply with their demands during the Total Peace negotiations.

Institutional responses to prevent and tackle deforestation, however, remain insufficient, primarily due to limited State control over the affected territories. This underscores the urgent need for increased support for communities in the Amazon grappling with the dual challenges of climate change and insecurity.

In collaboration with the Foundation for Conservation and Sustainable Development, the report offers several recommendations, including strengthening security measures to ensure the continuity and sustainability of environmental authorities’ work, raising awareness of deforestation issues, enhancing institutional capacity to address the problem, and generating more evidence and data on the matter.

Este informe explora la relación entre las perturbaciones climáticas, la degradación causada por el ser humano y las actividades de grupos armados en la Amazonía colombiana. El informe se enfoca en la participación de disidencias de las FARC-EP en actividades de deforestación durante el fenómeno de El Niño de 2023-2024 con el fin de explorar cómo estos grupos han adaptado su comportamiento en respuesta a las perturbaciones climáticas causadas por este fenómeno, utilizando El Niño como un indicador de los impactos esperados del cambio climático.

El estudio se basa en dos rondas de grupos focales con líderes comunitarios, autoridades civiles, comunidades indígenas, fuerzas públicas y jóvenes en San José del Guaviare. La primera ronda se llevó a cabo en noviembre de 2023, antes de la llegada de El Niño, y la segunda en septiembre de 2024, después de sus impactos más severos.

Los hallazgos revelan un aumento significativo en la deforestación durante el fenómeno de El Niño, impulsado por las sequías y altas temperaturas que facilitan estas actividades, y con consecuencias sociales, culturales, económicas y ambientales importantes para las comunidades de la región. Los grupos disidentes de las FARC-EP han aprovechado estas sequías para establecer un modelo de negocio centrado en la regulación de la deforestación y en obtener beneficios de actividades económicas como la ganadería, así como la producción de leche y madera. Además, los disidentes también han utilizado la deforestación como herramienta para presionar al gobierno a cumplir con sus demandas en las negociaciones de Paz Total.

Las respuestas institucionales para prevenir y enfrentar la deforestación, sin embargo, siguen siendo insuficientes, principalmente debido al limitado control del Estado sobre los territorios afectados. Esto muestra la urgente necesidad de proveer un mayor apoyo a las comunidades de la Amazonía que enfrentan los desafíos tanto del cambio climático como de la inseguridad.

En colaboración con la Fundación para la Conservación y el Desarrollo Sostenible (FCDS), el informe ofrece varias recomendaciones, tales como el fortalecimiento de medidas de seguridad para garantizar la continuidad y sostenibilidad de los esfuerzos de las autoridades ambientales, la sensibilización frente a los problemas de deforestación, el fortalecimiento de la capacidad institucional para abordar el problema y la generación de más evidencia y datos al respecto.

The post Armed Group Responses to Climatic Shocks: A Study of FARC-EP Dissident Activities in the Colombian Amazon During an El Niño Year first appeared on UNIDIR.

While these three issue are frequently discussed when it comes to recruitment, the details of how they affect reintegration of former associates have yet to be comprehensively addressed by research, policy and practice.

This report from the Managing Exits from Armed Conflict Project seeks to make reintegration programmes more effective by ensuring that they reflect the real challenges faced by former associates of Boko Haram.

The report’s findings are informed by qualitative research based on 183 interviews (84 women and 99 men) conducted between February and October 2024, in the far North region of Cameroon and the Lac Region of Chad.

Thumbnail/social media preview image: Scaling up the EU’s response to soaring hunger in West Africa by EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

The post Climate, Insecurity and Displacement: Triple Barriers to the Reintegration of Former Boko Haram Associates first appeared on UNIDIR.

This brief provides background on the little-known Lakurawa, and draws on quantitative research conducted across the North West of Nigeria from January to February 2025 which gathered perspectives from 2,236 community members across Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara. Valuable lessons can be drawn from the the group’s rise as it exemplifies the potential dangers of grassroots security solutions, if they evolve into threats themselves.

The post The Lakurawa: North West Nigeria’s ‘Newest’ Threat first appeared on UNIDIR.

The post Banditry in Nigeria’s North West: Key Findings first appeared on UNIDIR.

Alongside the findings from qualitative research, the report also draws from data collected in multiple surveys conducted across the three countries between April and June 2024. Ultimately, the report seeks to provide much-needed nuance to the experiences of women and girls to inform prevention and reintegration programming to ensure that such programming is gender-sensitive and ultimately more effective at addressing the unique needs of women and girls formerly associated with Boko Haram.

The post Survival and Struggle: The Experience of Women and Girls With and After Boko Haram first appeared on UNIDIR.

The study reveals that some survivors of sexual violence join illegal armed groups seeking justice, as local mechanisms often fail to hold perpetrators accountable. This is exacerbated by unequal gender norms, limited family and community support for survivors and systemic barriers to justice.

In collaboration with the ACIN, the report offers recommendations for gender-sensitive conflict prevention and reintegration efforts that consider the distinct needs of Indigenous communities and those of survivors. These include improving policies and guidance, enhancing training and capacity-building, strengthening documentation and data collection on the issue, increasing survivor support services and promoting normative change.

The post Sexual Violence and the Struggle for Justice: The Involvement of Indigenous Nasa Survivors in Armed Groups in Northern Cauca first appeared on UNIDIR.

Based on research conducted in Nigeria between July 2023 and March 2024, the report provides an overview of four VSOs in Borno: the Borno State Hunters Association, the CJTF, the Kesh Kesh vigilante group and the Vigilante Group of Nigeria. It  investigates the firearms these groups possess and how they acquire them, while offering insights into the emerging good practice for the oversight and management of VSOs’ conventional arms and ammunition.

The report aims to shed light on state approaches to arming community security entities, offering key questions for policymakers and program developers on how these efforts impact community protection and safety as well as broader state security.

The post Exploring the Acquisition and Management of Arms among Volunteer Security Outfits in Nigeria’s Borno State first appeared on UNIDIR.

There are uncertainties about how to apply the prohibition of the use of force to space, many of which are not exclusive to outer space; rather, the unique nature of space brings these uncertainties to the fore.

In the context of multilateral debates, States have the opportunity to increase clarity on the interpretation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter in its application to outer space. As the definition of prohibited force can help to clarify regulation of space capabilities and space behaviours and already applies to all States, the prohibition of the use of force can serve as a useful basis for advancing common understandings for Preventing an Arms Race in Outer Space.

The post Outer Space and Use of Force first appeared on UNIDIR.

The report draws on MEAC’s original survey research with affected communities in Katsina, Zamfara, and Sokoto states in the North West of Nigeria. Through the lens of affected communities, it also looks at where banditry sits in the wider context of conflict and violence in Nigeria, including conflict between farmers and herders and the Boko Haram insurgency in the North East of the country.

The report seeks to contribute to a more nuanced understanding of the phenomenon in order to help policymakers and practitioners identify effective responses to improve security in the region.

The post Banditry Violence in Nigeria’s North West: Insights from Affected Communities (Findings Report 36) first appeared on UNIDIR.

Uniquely, MEAC has first-hand reporting from ex-combatants themselves, many of whom say that climate-related difficulties played a role in their recruitment.

As climatic impacts differ across – and often even within – regions, the individual stories of association can vary significantly. Crafting tailored responses is key to address the linkages between climate and conflict, both with a view to preventing recruitment into armed groups and supporting the reintegration of those coming out of them.

The post Climate Change Is Driving People into Armed Groups: Five Takeaways first appeared on UNIDIR.

The report examines the factors driving weapons holding in the North East of Nigeria and determines if former associates of Boko Haram and community security groups are retaining their weapons (or rearming later) in order to strengthen disarmament efforts and reduce armed violence in the region. This report also highlights a range of social, civic and victimization factors related to weapons holding. These findings can inform the design and implementation of conflict prevention and disarmament strategies in the North East of Nigeria.

This is a joint report containing original data and analysis from MEAC, as well as contributions from UNIDIR’s Conventional Arms and Ammunition Programme and UNIDIR’s Gender and Disarmament Programme. The multi-perspective approach brought to bear for this study is essential for developing a holistic and nuanced understanding of how and why different populations arm themselves and what conditions lead them to lay aside their weapons, questions which have significant implications for the safety and peacebuilding efforts in a region that has long suffered from insurgent violence.

The post Factors Driving Weapons Holding in the North East of Nigeria (Findings Report 33) first appeared on UNIDIR.

Findings highlight a range of social, civic, and family-based factors related to recruitment which may be of use when designing prevention and reintegration strategies for children in the Lake Chad Basin region.

The post Child Recruitment in the Lake Chad Basin (Findings Report 22) first appeared on UNIDIR.

This data will allow the LCBC and its partners to better understand the needs in the region and the challenges to enhancing security and protection efforts. This data can serve as an initial reference point from which to understand subsequent progress. In addition, throughout the report, the potential policy and programmatic implications of the presented findings are considered.

The post Preventing Recruitment and Ensuring Effective Reintegration Efforts: Evidence from Across the Lake Chad Basin to Inform Policy and Practice first appeared on UNIDIR.

It presents findings on past and current child recruitment patterns, with a particular focus on new dynamics of child recruitment that have arisen since the peace agreement between the Government of Colombia and the FARC-EP (“Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – Ejército del Pueblo”) in 2016, including changes in recruitment tactics and recruitment of Venezuelan migrant and refugee children.

This data may be useful to government, UN, and NGO partners working in Colombia to support their policies and programming to prevent and respond to child recruitment in this changing landscape of insecurity and vulnerability.

The post Current Dynamics of Child Recruitment in Colombia (Findings Report 14) first appeared on UNIDIR.

It presents findings on climate change and human-induced environmental degradation, including impacts such as displacement and association with armed groups. It also includes analysis of some of the different levels and types of impact that these climate trends have on women and ethnic groups.

This data may be useful to government, UN, and NGO partners working in Colombia to tackle climate change and environmental degradation, and to dismantle armed groups and bring about peace, including through implementation of the 2016 peace agreement between the Colombian Government and the FARC-EP.

This publication can also be downloaded from the UNU-CPR website

The post Climate-Driven Recruitment and Other Conflict Dynamics in Colombia (Findings Report 8) first appeared on UNIDIR.

Policymakers and practitioners face a crucial challenge: despite decades of disarmament and reintegration programming, people’s motivations to join, leave and potentially rejoin armed groups are often poorly understood. As a result, there is a significant knowledge gap as to which approaches are most effective in helping sustain the transition to civilian life after conflict. Without a nuanced understanding of these dynamics, interventions risk being ill-equipped to facilitate disarmament and reintegration, which in turn can increase the risks of recidivism and conflict renewal.

Identifying what drives individuals’ recruitment and reintegration journeys is essential for designing effective interventions. UNIDIR’s Managing Exits from Armed Conflict Project helps fill critical evidence gaps and inform better-tailored approaches that promote and sustain pathways from conflict to peace.

Across six countries (Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Colombia and Iraq) the project has gathered fine-grained data that gets to the heart of why people disarm and demobilize, and before that, what leads them to join an armed group. This is done through:

• Quantitative methods (large-scale surveys of former armed group associates, former and current affiliates of community security and militia groups, and unaffiliated community members)

• Qualitative work (focus groups and key informant interviews)

• Other experimental and participatory approaches (such as research and photography workshops with conflict-affected youth).

A holistic assessment of conflict trajectories

UNIDIR’s Managing Exits from Armed Conflict Project adopts a holistic approach to understanding reintegration progress. It examines former associates’ reintegration journeys through various dimensions, including economic, social and psychological well-being and perceptions of community trust and acceptance. This multifaceted approach helps examine the progress and challenges people face on their reintegration journeys and how different factors – including livelihood difficulties, environmental challenges, governance policies and gender norms – affect transitions to civilian life.

For individuals to disarm fully and permanently, it is important that they manage to establish civilian livelihoods and find ways to reintegrate into social life. This can be difficult amid ongoing insecurity, structural barriers or other factors.

In Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon, for instance, the project found that individuals who left Boko Haram often felt physically threatened by their old group and faced significant obstacles in finding new income sources, partly due to restrictions on farming.

The concern with returnees who continue to feel unsafe after demobilizing or who struggle to meet their basic needs is that they may retain weapons to protect themselves or take up arms for their economic survival. Both outcomes can have destabilizing effects and undermine weapons collection programmes.

© 2015, ICRC/Jesus Andres Serrano Redondo

Measuring progress over time

Alongside its holistic assessment, a distinctive feature of the Managing Exits from Armed Conflict Project is its longitudinal approach, following former associates and returnees for up to four consecutive years. This has allowed researchers to assess reintegration over time rather than through a single snapshot. It also makes it possible to identify factors that support or impede progress, such as receiving programming support or civil documentation.

The project’s findings confirm that reintegration is not an event but a long-term process shaped by individual, community and societal factors.

Disarmament and reintegration programmes therefore need to take into account what motivates individuals to disarm, their sources of resilience and the barriers that former associates may face for years after leaving their group, to better support them on their pathways away from conflict.

Addressing armed group recruitment to improve conflict prevention

Another important aspect of interrupting conflict cycles and preventing new ones from forming is to address the root causes of armed group recruitment and weapons proliferation. To better understand the drivers of armed violence, the project has collected robust evidence about people’s entries into armed groups. For instance, in a survey in the North East of Nigeria, around a quarter of respondents formerly associated with Boko Haram reported that they were promised something by the group when they initially became associated. These incentives included promises of economic well-being, but also education, a sense of belonging, assistance with marriage and safety from violence.

By unpacking the factors that influence recruitment, the project helps improve understanding of the root causes of conflict and supports partners in adapting prevention and peacebuilding strategies to people’s needs and realities on the ground. For example, the project has shown how climatic and environmental pressures can create conditions favourable to armed recruitment.

Across multiple surveys in the Lake Chad Basin, a notable percentage of former Boko Haram associates who reported climate-related livelihood difficulties before joining the group said that these difficulties played a role in their recruitment.

UNIDIR continues to explore the links between climate change and armed group involvement and behaviour to help identify emerging conflict risks and ensure that interventions remain responsive to changing conditions.

Through its holistic, comparative approach across multiple case studies, the project has shown that recruitment dynamics can be highly context-specific and vary significantly across settings. In Colombia, for instance, UNIDIR’s research found that some survivors of sexual violence from the Nasa Indigenous communities of northern Cauca joined FARC dissident groups in search of justice, in part because the mechanisms available in their communities failed to deliver justice and accountability for perpetrators.

The project works with local partners and communities across conflict settings to disseminate its research findings and supports them in adopting evidence-based approaches that respond to local needs. Its research contributes to improving understanding of why individuals enter armed groups and acquire weapons. This nuanced knowledge is crucial to inform and support conflict prevention initiatives, which are often underprioritized but vital elements of a comprehensive disarmament strategy.

© 2020, ICRC/Prichilla Absi

The two-way reality of reintegration

The reintegration of former associates of armed groups is not a one-way process. For them to return to civilian life, they need to be received and accepted by the communities to which they return. Given this reality, UNIDIR also gathers evidence about the lived experiences of unaffiliated communities affected by conflict.

This is important for two reasons:

1. It helps understand how communities are affected by and cope with insecurity and conflict, and how aid programmes can be tailored to address their needs and assist victims and survivors.
   
2. It provides a fuller picture of reintegration progress.

The project’s nuanced approach is essential in this regard, because although superficial measures of acceptance can seem high in some cases, qualitative analysis can reveal specific instances of rejection or discrimination against returnees.

In Iraq, for example, the high acceptance rates reported by Iraqi returnees from Al-Hol camp in Syria, who were often perceived to be affiliated with the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, were not necessarily mirrored by the perceptions of community members living in the same areas of return to the same extent.

UNIDIR’s evidence can uncover specific barriers that need to be addressed by policies and interventions in conflict-affected communities to promote receptivity in practice. By underlining the importance of investing in returnees’ community entry and promoting social cohesion, this research helps strengthen reintegration support and the prospects of sustainable transitions away from conflict.

Evidence to inform policy and practice

The project builds on UNIDIR’s expertise in disarmament by taking into consideration the multifaceted dimensions of human security and integrating a people-centred approach to disarmament and reintegration programming. Through collaboration with UN, regional, national and local partners, the Managing Exits from Armed Conflict Project equips practitioners and policymakers with high-quality, evidence-based information that fills critical knowledge gaps.

Earlier in the year, the project was shortlisted for the first edition of the UN 2.0 Awards, which recognize UN system initiatives that are achieving outstanding results through new ways of working and new solutions.

UNIDIR’s work helps inform the international community’s design and implementation of effective interventions that assist individuals and their communities in transitioning away from violent conflict and building durable peace.

The post Championing a people-centred approach to disarmament and reintegration first appeared on UNIDIR.

Improving coordination is essential, yet in many contexts it is difficult to obtain the information needed to coordinate effectively. Limited access to data, remote locations and fragmented systems often make it difficult to gather information regularly. Even when data exists, it may be incomplete, outdated, interpreted inconsistently across actors, or simply not used when decisions are made. These gaps make it harder for actors to understand needs accurately and reach the people who require support most urgently.

From fragmented data to coordinated action

When information from multiple sources is brought together, the picture becomes clearer. Integrated data systems, dashboards and mapping tools can help actors to better understand what has happened, what the needs are and how best to respond. These tools can make it easier to identify gaps, reduce duplication and support more coordinated planning. They do not solve the underlying challenges on their own, but they provide a stronger foundation for timely and informed decision‑making in fast‑moving environments to support communities in urgent need.

This vision reflects the direction set by the UN Secretary‑General’s data strategy, which calls for improved data access, stronger interoperability and more timely data‑driven decision‑making across the system. The strategy recognizes that better information alone is not enough, but that when data is accessible, connected and responsibly used, it provides an integrated platform for coordinated and effective action in complex environments.

The promise and limits of technological change

To improve coordination, we need to do it fast, using high quality information, and with a holistic approach.

Technology plays an important role in enabling this shift. Digitization accelerates the flow of information. Data can now be collected from remote locations using mobile devices, coordination across multiple actors is supported through integrated data management platforms, and analysis that once required lengthy manual steps can be automated by different analytical tools. These advances make it possible to respond to the needs of conflict affected populations in more targeted and timely ways. Instead of navigating slow, fragmented and manual systems, actors can focus on understanding needs and directing support where it is most urgently required.

Early in my data career, when I first began working with a local NGO during the Rohingya refugee response in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, technology had barely reached the remote camp areas scattered across the hills and mountains. We collected information over the phone or through paper‑based questionnaires: a slow, manual process that was far from ideal in an emergency response, where every minute matters.

When we transitioned to an ODK‑based data collection system, everything changed. Instead of chasing phone calls and sorting through stacks of paper, field teams could send data directly from their mobile devices. As the information came in, we could analyse and visualize it within minutes. That shift dramatically improved the speed and quality of our decision‑making, allowing teams on the ground to respond faster and with far greater confidence.

Rabby Shakur, UNIDIR Associate Researcher

But even with better systems and new technology, the way information is presented still needs to work for the people who use it. Many actors are already stretched thin, juggling several crises at once and expected to do more with fewer resources. If tools are complicated or take extra time to learn, they can become a burden rather than an asset for the actors. Formats need to be simple, practical and easy to use so that busy teams can quickly understand the information and act on it. When data is presented in a way that fits how people actually work, it is far more likely to support real decision-making.

This focus on usability also aligns with the broader direction of the UN80 initiative, which the UN Secretary-General has framed as essential to reducing duplication, strengthening coherence and enabling the UN system to operate more efficiently with limited resources. While still in process, the initiative reflects the direction set out in statements from the Secretary-General and in guidance circulated by Guy Ryder and senior leadership emphasizing clearer roles, shared approaches and more streamlined ways of working. By simplifying processes and reducing unnecessary complexity, UN80 seeks to ensure that actors can spend less time navigating systems and more time supporting people in need.

Beyond accessibility and usability, data must be reliable, ethically collected and managed and interpreted carefully. Poor-quality or misinterpreted data can reinforce blind spots rather than resolve them. Strong systems must therefore be accompanied by strong analytical capacity and governance frameworks that ensure ethical generation and use.

Ethical implications behind the numbers

Research findings that are usually disseminated via static outputs, such as reports and briefings, may sometimes limit the ability to respond to immediate questions. To realize the full value of the data collected, interactive and comparative data dashboards transform these findings into dynamic, user-friendly visualizations, on the one hand allowing deeper engagement, and on the other, maximizing the utility of this information for all. The latter is an underappreciated ethical imperative.

The focus on ethics in research is often at the design and implementation stage – ensuring respondents are fully informed, consent protocols are followed and personal information is protected. Yet, while each of these steps is essential, this is only one aspect of ethical research.

In considering ethics in this discussion, we especially address the moral responsibility that arises when research involves vulnerable people impacted by conflict. It is incumbent upon researchers to ensure that the data generated from their time and engagement is fully utilized and shared in recognition of the burden of their engagement and as part of efforts to ensure they are not overly interviewed.  The UN, as an organization that promotes values like human rights, dignity and the protection of vulnerable populations, should be at the forefront of this type of ethical data use especially as UN actors seek to fulfill the Secretary-General’s data strategy vision.

Evidence that is collected from vulnerable, conflict-affected populations, but remains underused, inaccessible, or disconnected from policy and practice risks falling short of this ethical responsibility. In this sense, effective communication of research findings becomes part of ethical research practice, not merely a dissemination task.

Delivering results in a format that meets the need to inform real-time decisions is an ethical obligation to ensure that research is meaningfully used. Doing so via visual tools becomes increasingly critical, especially when addressing policymakers, practitioners and other stakeholders working across conflict transition contexts, often operating under time constraints.

Data is never just numbers. It is a human story – originated from someone who asked a question and shaped by the lived experience of someone who answered. Behind every number is a life, a story, a moment of trust.

Clara Zuccarino, UNIDIR Graduate Professional

At UNIDIR’s Managing Exits from Armed Conflict Project, we encounter these dynamics directly. The project conducts research to understand how and why individuals exit armed conflict, and how institutions can better support those transitions. Reintegration processes for individuals leaving armed groups are complex and deeply context specific. Generating rigorous evidence and assessments on conflict trajectories is essential to understanding what contributes to sustainable reintegration outcomes. However, research findings must be accessible if they are to inform real-world decisions.

By transforming UNIDIR’s evidence into accessible data portals and visualizations, we aim to make it easier for policymakers, practitioners and other stakeholders to translate evidence into action. The goal is not only to produce knowledge, but to ensure that it can inform planning, coordination and programmatic adjustments in meaningful ways and in semi-real time.

Maximizing the public value of evidence for future initiatives

Today, the UN system is asked to respond to complex global challenges amid tightening resources, resulting in both a practical and ethical responsibility to maximize the public value of data. Evidence generated through significant investment of time and trust by participants should not remain underused.

Evidence, however, is not an end in itself. Data has limitations, but strengthening how evidence is interpreted and applied across the system is both an efficiency measure and a commitment to ethical, impactful research and assessment. When information is translated into forms that genuinely support decision-making and shared responsibly in accessible formats such as dashboards or analytical tools, it becomes a foundation for more informed decisions in complex conflict response, ultimately improving outcomes for the populations the UN seeks to serve.

Mohammed Rabby Shakur is an Associate Researcher with UNIDIR’s Managing Exits from Armed Conflict project. Previously, he served as an Information Management Delegate with the Finnish Red Cross in Ethiopia, as a Senior Information Management Officer with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies in Bangladesh, and as a Management Information System Officer with BRAC in Bangladesh. He has also worked as a consultant with the United Nations. Rabby holds a bachelor’s degree in management information systems from North South University. 

Clara Zuccarino was a Graduate Professional with UNIDIR’s Strategic Communications Unit. She holds a master’s in international and development studies from the Geneva Graduate Institute and a bachelor’s in philosophy, international and economic studies from Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, where she graduated cum laude. Previously, Clara worked at the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe on media and social media relations and strategy with multiple international stakeholders.

The post Data and digital tools driving more effective conflict response first appeared on UNIDIR.

The energy was electric. As a young Malawian stepping into COP30, I was swept into the rush: high-level delegates weaving between pavilions, back-to-back meetings, cameras flashing, conversations in dozens of languages. This was my first international conference of this calibre, the global stage where decisions shaping our present and future are being made. 

I carried the voices of young people from one of the many fragile and climate-vulnerable States, and yet the silence on climate-security issues was deafening. 

The missing link 

We expected the impacts of the climate crisis on peace and security to feature prominently on the agenda. The Pearce Sustainability Consulting Group warned that climate security remained “the missing link” in climate diplomacy.  And still, when the agenda dropped, that link was missing once again. 

There were glimmers of hope. In his opening speech, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva referenced conflict and military spending, signaling awareness of the climate, peace and security nexus. But those signals never translated into substance. Unlike COP28 – which produced a Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery, and Peace – COP30 offered no Peace Day and no negotiation item on climate security. Even the celebrated Belém Declaration on Hunger and Poverty omitted any mention of displaced or conflict-affected populations. ODI Global criticized this gap, noting that fragility had been treated as context, not constituency despite clear evidence that conflict and hunger are deeply intertwined in climate-vulnerable regions. 

Youth refused the silence 

While older generations largely sidestepped the nexus, young people refused to. At the UN Climate Change Conference of Children and Youth (COY20), held in the run-up to COP, linkages between climate and conflict were brought to the table. Our collective output, the Global Youth Statement called for formal recognition of the interdependence between climate action, peace and security. For us, this is not just rhetorical; we are the ones who will live longest with the consequences of today’s inaction.  

We didn’t just analyse the problem – we offered practical solutions. The Global Centre for Climate Mobility organized a series of panel sessions to highlight climate mobility solutions from young people. Youth leaders from Uganda, Zimbabwe and Tonga offered adaptation initiatives such as capacity-building for internally displaced persons, disaster zones mapping initiatives and improving access to clean water and health care to support displaced communities. 

Then came the question that cut through the room: “How do we protect youth from being drawn into armed groups after climate-induced displacement?”, a Somali youth delegate asked. 

His question reminded me of the work carried out by UNIDIR’s Managing Exits from Armed Conflict Project. Field research from the Lake Chad Basin region and Colombia shows how climate change impacts individuals’ economic livelihoods and communities’ social structures, driving people into armed groups in search of better opportunities. Integrating climate considerations into peace programming and strengthening conflict-sensitive climate change adaptation and mitigation is key to address these multidirectional dynamics.  

Side events bridged the gap 

Thankfully, COP corridors told a different story. Side events stepped in where formal negotiations fell short. At the UN Climate Security Mechanism’s session “Bridging the Gap: Making Climate Finance Work for the Underserved”, the core message was clear: Climate finance must shift from short-term crisis response to long-term, peace-positive resilience in fragile and conflict-affected States. Speakers from fragile contexts like Somalia stressed the need for accessible, simplified financing models that actually work for countries navigating both climate impacts and instability. 
 
Similarly, I joined a discussion at the International Organization of Migration’s pavilion on the security risks emerging from climate migration across Africa. High-level panellists from the African Union, Ghana, and academia described how climate disasters push people to move, strain already fragile institutions, and expose young people to recruitment pressures. 

These conversations echoed what research has long been highlighting: climatic stresses increase the risks of instability, heighten vulnerabilities, and widen protection gaps.  

Progress, gaps and what comes next 

While COP30 will be remembered for many things, climate security may likely not be one of them. Just as some parties expressed frustration over the lack of a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap in the final text, others – myself included – were disappointed by the silence surrounding the climate, peace and security nexus. 

Yes, there has been progress. Climate migration and climate-related security risks are no longer taboo topics. Youth, civil society, and research institutions continue to push the agenda forward. But side events are not enough. Climate security risks must move from the margins to the mainstream of negotiations. 

If future COPs continue to overlook this reality, they risk crafting climate solutions that fail the people most affected. For those of us living daily at the intersection of climate fragility and insecurity, this is not an academic debate – it’s survival. 

The next COP must do better. Climate security is not a side event. 
It is the main event. 

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